FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
September 11, 2018
DC Insiders: Odds Favor Democrats for House Control, Uphill Climb for Action on Key Issues
WASHINGTON - D.C. insiders say that the odds favor Democrats for taking control of the House in the November election, but give the edge to Republicans keeping the Senate.
These findings come in the September Agora Insider Confidence Index (ICI), a monthly measurement of the current policy and political mood in Washington, which also finds low confidence in C0ngress' ability to advance key legislation before the end of the year.
Insiders polled for the ICI gave the likelihood of the Democrats taking control of the House an average 6.96 on a scale of 1 to 10. They rate the chances of Democrats taking over the Senate a 3.31 - but peg the odds of the GOP adding to their slim majority at 4.31.
There is broad consensus that major action on key policy Initiatives like immigration and infrastructure won't materialize, with insiders placing the likelihood of action on immigration at a paltry 1.88 out of 10 and infrastructure at 2.42. Insiders place the odds of new tax cuts at 2.50, but feel more confident that Congress could extend expiring tax incentives before the new year. The insiders rate the likelihood of a government shutdown this fall at 4.62 out of 10.
As one insider put it, "The rest of the year will look a lot like the last 8 months."
The September ICI was conducted among DC insiders in government, lobbying, media and political consulting between Aug. 29 and Sept. 10, 2018.
Agora Insider Confidence Index
September 2018 Results
About the ICI
The Agora Insider Confidence Index (ICI) is a monthly measurement of the current policy and political mood in Washington. By surveying select federal government relations professionals, the ICI provides a snapshot into what D.C. insiders think about the road ahead for Congress and the White House on key policy issues.
Understanding the likelihood that specific policy measures will advance is vital for policymakers, advocates and others who determine how to use resources to push for legislative and regulatory action. Knowing how Washington insiders think about the outlook for major issues gives decisionmakers a critical tool in allocating time, energy and money towards policy.
The ICI asks respondents to gauge the likelihood of near- and medium-term action on pressing policy issues using a 0-10 scale to measure. All ICI respondents are professionals whose work involves the federal government process, including government employees, lobbyists, policy professionals, and journalists.
Agora is an advocacy consulting firm that provides a complete suite of services, from policy development and messaging to grassroots issue campaigns and coalition-building. Agora's approach focuses on integrating lobbying, media, grassroots and political action into winning advocacy campaigns. Agora draws on nearly half a century of real-world experience in and out of government, advancing forward-thinking public policy. From building comprehensive advocacy campaigns to drafting and enacting legislation, its team has achieved big results in DC.
For more information on Agora, please visit www.agoragov.com.