The Agora Insider Confidence Index (ICI) is a measurement of the current policy and political mood in Washington.

 

By surveying select federal government relations professionals, the ICI provides a snapshot into what D.C. insiders think about the road ahead for Congress and the White House on key policy issues. 

 

Understanding the likelihood that specific policy measures will advance is vital for policymakers, advocates and others who determine how to use resources to push for legislative and regulatory action. Knowing how Washington insiders think about the outlook for major issues gives decisionmakers a critical tool in allocating time, energy and money towards policy.

 

The ICI asks respondents to gauge the likelihood of near- and medium-term action on pressing policy issues using a 0-10 scale to measure. All ICI respondents are professionals whose work involves the federal government process, including government employees, lobbyists, policy professionals, and journalists.

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September 2019

Impeachment Growing More Likely, Say DC Insiders

Continued Pessimism About Action on Top Policy Issues 

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WASHINGTON - As Congress returns from its summer break, D.C. insiders believe the odds of the Democratic-controlled House passing articles of impeachment against President Trump before the 2020 election are higher than ever, while optimism about policy movement remains elusive,

 

Those are the conclusions of the Agora Insider Confidence Index, a quarterly measurement of the current policy and political mood in Washington.

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Insiders rate the odds of impeachment at 4.45 out of 10, a significant jump from last spring, when impeachment was rated at just 2.9/10. This change in assessment comes as House Judiciary Committee Democrats lay out their process this week for moving forward with impeachment hearings.

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Meanwhile, D.C. insiders continue to rate the odds of action on big-ticket policy items at well below five-in-ten. All issues rate below a 3.5 out of 10 with two exceptions: infrastructure, which insiders continue to see as the likeliest candidate for action in the 116th Congress; and gun control, which - in the wake of a series of mass shootings in Texas, Ohio and elsewhere - insiders see as having a 3.64-in-10 chance of advancing.

 

See last quarter's ICI results.

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Tax cuts are the one issue where insiders see a higher possibility of action than they did earlier in the year, with growing concerns over the economy increasing the chances that Washington will try to stimulate the economy with another round of cuts.

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Overall, hope for the current Congress being more productive than the previous Congress continues to drop. While insiders rated the odds of a more productive two years at almost 4-in-10 in January, when the new Congress was sworn in, insiders now peg the chances of higher productivity at just above 2-in-10.

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The September ICI was conducted among DC insiders in government, lobbying, media and political consulting in August/September 2019.