DAY 29: Flying blind on the economy
- Agora
- Oct 29
- 3 min read
AGORA SHUTDOWN UPDATE
October 29, 2025
Now entering its fifth week, the federal government shutdown is beginning to wreak havoc on the economy. First, CBO reported that the shutdown could cost upwards of $14 billion. And later this week the Fed has to decide on interest rates without access to the full panoply of economic data upon which they normally rely.
On Capitol Hill, the parties aren’t even seeing the same reality: while Republicans are hopeful that enough Democrats will cross the aisle to end the shutdown, Democratic leadership say they are holding firm. But talks to pay all federal employees during the shutdown are increasing.
With the Thanksgiving travel season only a few weeks away, anxiety on the Hill about which party will get blamed for stranded relatives, not to mention the end of food stamps this weekend, is only going to ratchet up. But for the moment, serious talks to end the impasse aren’t happening.
CONGRESS
Nearly one month into the government shutdown, the vibes might finally be shifting. A looming cliff of crucial deadlines, plus fresh outside pressure, is adding new urgency into bipartisan conversations that have been sputtering for weeks.
Senate Democrats are taking a close look at a Republican proposal to pay all federal employees — including essential and furloughed workers — as they’re under new pressure from the nation’s largest federal workers union to pass a clean continuing resolution to reopen the government.
Senate Democrats are suggesting they will maintain their current posture of withholding votes for any measure to reopen the government that does not also address rising health care premiums, despite the largest federal employee union endorsing a more immediate end to the shutdown.
WHITE HOUSE
A federal judge on Tuesday indefinitely blocked the Trump administration from carrying out layoffs during the government shutdown, saying the president’s actions were likely unlawful and taken for the purposes of political retribution.
FEDERAL AGENCIES
Senate Republicans will block a Democratic bill that would keep federal food aid flowing to 42 million Americans as they try to build pressure to reopen the government, Majority Leader John Thune said Wednesday.
Federal Communications Commission Chairman Brendan Carr acknowledged Tuesday the agency’s momentum could slow in the weeks ahead, saying staff shortages would likely force the commission to trim its November meeting agenda.
FEDERAL WORKFORCE
A non-profit organization seeking to support federal employees throughout the appropriations lapse now says it’s on a fast track toward completely exhausting its funding pool for shutdown grants.
As the shutdown enters its fourth week and the administration searches for ways to pay troops at the end of the month, hundreds of service members have reported receiving incorrect pay or no pay at all during the mid-month pay cycle — and so far, none of those discrepancies have been corrected.
THE IMPACT
The U.S. economy will lose between $7 billion and $14 billion due to the federal government shutdown, according to a new report released Wednesday by Congress’s nonpartisan bookkeeper.
The Federal Reserve is poised to cut interest rates again this week, but the environment surrounding that decision is unusually fraught for the central bank. A month-long government shutdown has halted or delayed key data about the health of the economy, depriving policymakers of official economic readings.
What does a shutdown mean for government contractors, employees, grantees and the general public? Click here for more information.
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